Despite leading in the polls, the People\u2019s Party confronts an establishment with a two-decade record of overturning electoral mandates.<\/p>\n
Bangkok, Thailand \u2013 The orange campaign buses of Thailand\u2019s opposition People\u2019s Party have been hard to miss in recent weeks, winding through cities and villages carrying reformist politicians on what they call the \u201cChoose the Future\u201d tour.<\/p>\n
At rally stops, thousands have gathered to hear promises of change.<\/p>\n
On social media, videos of the candidates have drawn millions of views.<\/p>\n
For many, the support for the party before Sunday\u2019s general election has stirred hope that the democratic future it promises may finally be within reach.<\/p>\n
But in Thailand, winning an election does not guarantee the right to govern.<\/p>\n
Known simply as the Orange party for its signature colour, the People\u2019s Party is the latest incarnation of a progressive movement that has repeatedly clashed with Thailand\u2019s royalist conservative establishment. Its predecessor won the last election in 2023, taking 151 seats in the 500-member House. Yet it was blocked from power by a military-appointed Senate and later dissolved by the Constitutional Court over its calls to curb the powers of the monarchy.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur \u2018soldiers\u2019 might have grown in number, but the conservative side\u2019s arsenal is still devastatingly strong,\u201d said Thankrit Duangmaneeporn, co-director of Breaking the Cycle, a documentary about the \u201cOrange Movement\u201d. But he said he hoped the party could still force the entrenched establishment into a compromise by demonstrating overwhelming support at the polls.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe will fight at the ballot box on Sunday,\u201d he said. \u201cThat is all we can do.\u201d<\/p>\n
For more than a quarter-century, Thailand \u2013 a nation of about 71 million people \u2013 has been trapped in a dispiriting loop. Reformist parties win elections, only to be removed by courts, coups or other interventions by judges, generals and tycoons, all loyal to the monarchy.<\/p>\n
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Many fear the pattern is about to repeat itself.<\/p>\n
While opinion polls suggest the People\u2019s Party will again win the most seats on Sunday, analysts say the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, led by caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, stands a better chance of forming a government.<\/p>\n
A January 30 survey by the National Institute of Development Administration put the People\u2019s Party leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, in first place for prime minister with 29.1 percent, followed by Anutin at 22.4 percent. For party lists, the People\u2019s Party led with 34.2 percent, followed by Bhumjaithai at 22.6 percent. In third was Pheu Thai, the party of jailed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, with 16.2 percent.<\/p>\n
A candidate for the top job must secure the backing of 251 legislators. Unless the People\u2019s Party can reach that threshold on its own, analysts say Bhumjaithai could manoeuvre \u2013 with help from conservative power brokers, Pheu Thai and smaller parties \u2013 into forming the next government.<\/p>\n
The People\u2019s Party traces its roots to the Future Forward Party, founded in 2018 with a pledge to curb the influence of unelected institutions. It quickly became the most serious challenge to elite domination of Thai politics and the economy in a generation, winning 81 seats in its first election in 2019.<\/p>\n
But it was disbanded by the courts the following year.<\/p>\n
Reconstituted as Move Forward, the party went on to win the 2023 election \u2014 only to be dissolved again the next year.<\/p>\n
\u2018We don\u2019t use money to buy power\u2019<\/p>\n
Rukchanok Srinork, a 32-year-old lawmaker for the reborn People\u2019s Party, said past defeats should not extinguish hopes. Speaking from a rally stop in the northern city of Chiang Mai, Rukchanok, who goes by the nickname \u201cIce\u201d, said her party has already changed Thai politics.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are a party that won an election without spending a single baht on buying votes,\u201d she told Al Jazeera, referring to the vote-buying practices that have long shaped Thailand\u2019s elections, particularly in rural areas.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe don\u2019t use money to buy power,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
Rukchanok\u2019s own rise reflects the party\u2019s appeal.<\/p>\n
Once an online vendor, she built a following through social media critiques of corruption and military overreach, then entered the National Assembly on the strength of that support. Her story, she said, showed what could be possible in a fairer system.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen people understand they have a role and that their voice matters, they won\u2019t lose hope in politics,\u201d Rukchanok said.<\/p>\n
But that idealism might not be enough.<\/p>\n
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Prinya Thaewanarumitkul, a legal scholar at Thammasat University, warned that \u201cmoney politics\u201d could still tilt outcomes in rural areas, even if voters increasingly \u201ctake the money but vote with their heart\u201d.<\/p>\n
For the People\u2019s Party, the possibility of forming a government \u201cbecomes real\u201d only if it secures 200 seats or more, he added.<\/p>\n
A conservative counteroffensive<\/p>\n
As the People\u2019s Party surges in the polls, Anutin, the caretaker prime minister, has become the favoured candidate of the royalist conservative establishment.<\/p>\n
The heir to a construction fortune and the face of Thailand\u2019s cannabis legalisation, Anutin became prime minister in August after the Constitutional Court removed his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, over her handling of a border crisis with Cambodia.<\/p>\n
Since then, he has skilfully exploited nationalist sentiment around the conflict, which killed 149 people on both sides before a ceasefire in December.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnyone can say \u2018choose me and you won\u2019t regret it,’\u201d Anutin told a rally near the border with Cambodia this week. \u201cBut Bhumjaithai says that with the military on our side, we will never be defeated.\u201d<\/p>\n
Anutin has assembled a team of seasoned figures from business and diplomatic circles and drawn support from powerful political dynasties that trade their support for cabinet positions. His party has also rolled out populist policies, including a subsidy programme that covers half the cost of food and has proved popular among struggling households and small businesses.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t know many other policies,\u201d said Buapan Anusak, 56, at a recent Bhumjaithai rally in Bangkok. \u201cBut there also has to be a prime minister that\u2019s patriotic,\u201d she added, referring to the border tensions.<\/p>\n
Bhumjaithai has also made inroads into territory once dominated by Pheu Thai, the party that won every election from 2001 until the People\u2019s Party\u2019s breakthrough in 2023.<\/p>\n
Pheu Thai\u2019s founder Thaksin, now 76, remains a hero to many for policies like universal healthcare. But Pheu Thai has lost its mantle as the voice of reform to the People\u2019s Party, after it placed second in the last election and joined military-backed parties to form a government. Since then, two of its governments have collapsed, with two prime ministers \u2014 including Thaksin\u2019s daughter Paetongtarn \u2014 removed by the courts.<\/p>\n
Thaksin is currently in prison, with a parole hearing scheduled for May, around the time a new government must be formed.<\/p>\n
\u201cThaksin remains a master of the \u2018deal,’\u201d said Prinya, the scholar at Thammasat University. And given Thaksin\u2019s legal troubles and the pending cases against his daughter, the politician \u201cis heavily incentivised to maintain a partnership with the conservative establishment,\u201d Prinya added.<\/p>\n
Economic strain<\/p>\n
Whoever wins on Sunday will inherit a country in economic distress.<\/p>\n
Tariffs have hurt exporters, growth has slowed to less than 2 percent, and tourist arrivals have declined.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis may be a last chance to repair Thailand\u2019s once-Teflon economy,\u201d said Pavida Pananond, a professor of international business at Thammasat University, referring to the country\u2019s historical resilience.<\/p>\n
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But to bounce back, political stability would be essential, she stressed.<\/p>\n
\u201cRespecting the results and avoiding political manoeuvring that derails democratic processes is essential to restore economic confidence,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n
Back on the campaign trail, Rukchanok urged Thais not to give up.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe moment you stop sending your signal by voting, that is when the 1 percent who hold this country\u2019s resources will decide for you,\u201d she said. \u201cPeople may look at politics and see something \u2018dirty\u2019 \u2014 full of bluffing, mudslinging and endless arguing. But your life can only change if politics changes.\u201d<\/p>\n
She paused, then added: \u201cWe still have faith in the people.\u201d<\/p>\n
Source: RhinoEasy News<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Despite leading in the polls, the People\u2019s Party confronts an establishment with a two-decade record of overturning electoral mandates. Bangkok,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1166,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1167\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rhinoeasy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}